Andrew James Whalan

Poet Blogger Writer

An Abbott Recession Or Worse?

History unlearned has an unfortunate habit of repeating itself.

Unfortunately, the present economic policies of the Abbott LNP will have historical long-term economic and social consequences.

The following ready reckoner and broad analysis sets out the short and long term consequences of an Abbott LNP government.  (Please note these commitments are not costed).

Short Term Consequences

Tax Reduction

Tax Neutral

Spending Increase

Spending Decreases

  • Unspecified (see below).


Long Term Consequences

Obviously, even on a superficial understanding of the economy and Government spending, these promises will have to be funded through as yet unspecified spending cuts and/or extensive privatisation. One of the policy think tanks aligned with the LNP has specified an extensive blueprint here. Further suggestions are here.

Whether the LNP implements such wide-ranging spending cuts and/or privatisation remains to be seen. But there will be long-term consequences.

Privatisation

Privatisation, unfortunately has a poor track record in the public sphere:

  1. Governments have a poor record of successful privatisation with increased costs and decreased efficiency of service delivery.
  2. Privatisation increases public revenue in the short-term and decreases revenue in the longer term.
  3. Privatisation increases costs to the public in the long-term (especially for electricity).

Spending Cuts

As for spending cuts, as most Government spending is Health, Education and Human Services, inevitably the axe will fall there. The long-term consequences will be:

  • Health cuts will not satisfy the existing and increased demand for services due to mental illness, an aging and increasing population, etc.
  • Education reductions will create future skills shortages.
  • Social security cuts will create even more long-term unemployed and homeless with resulting social dislocation.

Ultimately

The same policies of spending cuts and privatisation have created recession for:

Worst of all, the LNP has stated its commitment to a budget surplus. Such a commitment  retained during an induced recession, will be history repeating itself : the same policy that worsened the 1929 Depression and the same policies that have hurt Greece and Spain.

It (will be) much worse than we thought.

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